Program day 3

Convenors: Ines Camilloni - Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), Argentina; Peter Irvine - University College London, UK; Romaric C. Odoulami - University of Cape Town, South Africa

Session description : Contributions focusing on high mitigation scenarios, overshoot and impact on the dynamics of the Earth System and reversibility of changes. Also contributions on direct climate interventions such as solar radiation modification (SRM), Carbon dioxide Removal (CDR), marine cloud brightening (MCB) and potential impacts on climate response but also on society and ecosystems; ethical implications of climate interventions.

Keynote speakers:

• "The potential and limits of carbon dioxide removal for climate mitigation", Glen Peters - CICERO, Norway - Remotely
• "Developing an Earth System framework integrating Climate Interventions (CDR and SRM) in CESM baseline, mitigation and adaptation scenarios, with fully resolved carbon cycle and stratosphere", Peter Lawrence - UCAR, USA
• "Identifying climate impacts under different stratospheric aerosol injection strategies", Alice Wells - University of Exeter, UK
• "Potential impact of solar radiation management geoengineering on water deficit risk over major Central African river basins", Thierry Fotso-Nguemo - Climate Change Research Laboratory (CCRL), National Institute of Cartography, Cameroon

Convenors: William Lipscomb - UCAR, USA; Petra Langebroek - Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Norway; Natalya Gomez - McGill, Canada

Session description: This will include current and future changes in ice sheets dynamics, sea level rise and their impacts on natural and human systems.

Keynote speakers:

• "Ice sheet mass change and processes from satellite remote sensing and numerical modeling", Beata Csatho - University of Buffalo, USA
• "Thwaites Glacier and ‘doomsday’ I: The nature of the threat, the history, and recent research results", Ted Scambos - University of Colorado, USA
• "Thwaites Glacier and ‘doomsday’ II: New field and ship-based field results of ITGC, and the social challenges of remote teams in Antarctica", Leilani Henry - Being and Living Enterprises, USA
• "Coastal erosion management linked to climate change in West Africa", Donatus Angnuureng - University of Cape Coast, Ghana

Convenors: Piotr Wolski - University of Cape Town, South Africa; Monica Morrison - UCAR, USA; Abu Syed - Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS), Bangladesh

Session description : Gaps between information generated from model simulation experiments (i.e., CMIP/MIPs) and regional/local information needs (i.e., adaptation, resilience, impacts studies). Differences in scale—temporal and spatial—and understanding of drivers of impacts—dynamics versus thermodynamic focus. Model adequacy and skill relative to actionable climate questions. Addressing differences between developer perceptions of usefulness and information usability. Knowledge translations and presentation (quantitative versus qualitative) of model output and disparate values between producers and users (e.g., inductive risk considerations).

Keynote speakers:

• "Climate storylines as a way of bridging the gap between model simulations and decision-relevant regional climate information", Ted Shepherd - University of Reading, UK
• "Life beyond Planet CMIP", Dáithí Stone - NIWA, New Zealand - Remotely
• "The logic and ethics of Earth System Modeling: Adaptation, resilience, and investigations of interventions", Monica Morrison - UCAR, USA

Convenors: Roland Séférian - Météo France, France; Chris Smith - University of Leeds, UK

Session description : The effective radiative forcing has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. Several components remain uncertain, particularly regionally heterogenous forcings such as aerosols and short-lived, chemically active greenhouse gases including methane. This session aims to conduct a community discussion on the assessment of anthropogenic and natural radiative forcings and their interaction with historical and future scenarios. Contributions investigating how historical and future radiative forcing could interface with climate mitigation pathways and other components of climate system uncertainty including climate sensitivity and carbon budgets are welcome.

Keynote speakers:

• "The importance of annual updates to the IPCC assessment of radiative forcing and other indicators", Piers Forster - University of Leeds; UK
• "Effects of SLCFs on climate: lessons learned from the IPCC AR6 and perspectives", Sophie Szopa - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE-IPSL), France - Remotely
• "Climate responses to regional aerosol emissions: First results from RAMIP", Bjorn H. Samset - CICERO, Norway

Convenors: Andy Turner - University of Reading, UK; Suryachandra Rao Anguluri - Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India; Paola Andrea Arias Gomez - University of Antioquia, Colombia; Tereza Cavazos - Center of Scientific Research and Higher Education of Ensenada, Mexico

Session description : Advances in understanding, predicting and modeling monsoonal systems in the current and future climate.

Keynote speakers:

• "Issues and challenges in predicting the American Monsoons", Alice Grimm - Universidade Federal do Paraná, Brazil - Remotely
• "Major issues and challenges for the African monsoons", Rondro Barimalala - University of Cape Town, South Africa
• "Observing and predicting the South Asian monsoon—Challenges in a changing climate", Roxy Mathew - Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India

Convenors: Jana Sillmann - University of Hamburg, Germany; Tim Raupach - University of New South Wales (UNSW), Australia; Shampa - Bangladesh University Of Engineering and Technology, Bangladesh; Olivia Martius - Geographisches Institut, Switzerland

Session description : In this session we welcome contributions that give the latest scientific insights and highlight knowledge gaps on observations and simulations of extreme events and hazards in the context of a changing climate. Extreme events include long-duration events (heatwaves, droughts), short-duration events (heavy precipitation, tropical and extratropical cyclones, storms) and cascading and compounding events. Hazards include past, current, and future hazards, and the factors (e.g. vulnerability, exposure, adaptive capacity) that make a hazard a hazard. We also encourage contributions related to warning and forecasting of hazards and extreme events, including early warning and forecast skill across temporal and spatial scales, impact-based forecasting, and climate information essential for early warnings.

Keynote speakers:

• "Climatic impact-driver (CID) Framework for Regional Impact and Risk Assessment", Saiful Islam AKM - Institute of Water and Flood management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Bangladesh
• "Changes in climate extremes: Achievements and Challenges", Gabi Hegerl - The University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom
• "Co-production of impact-based forecasts and warnings for high impact weather in a changing climate", Brian Mills - Environment and Climate Change Canada - Remotely

Convenors: Daouda Kone - Ivorian Association for Agricultural Sciences (IAAS), Ivory Coast; Gensuo Jia - CAS Institute of Atmospheric Physics, China

Session description : Assess impact of climate change (including extremes) on terrestrial and marine ecosystems, risks of ecosystem shifts, dieback and irreversibility.

Keynote speakers:

• "Future solutions for addressing impacts of a changing climate on biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and life on earth", Robert Marchant - University of York, USA
• "Cattle herds movements affected by scattered land use patterns in the Sahel cause massive transhumance southward causing overgrazing impacts and social conflicts in West Africa", Brice Augustin Sinsin - Abomey Calavy University, Benin

Convenors: Abdou Ali Cra - AGRHYMET Regional Center, Niger; Martin Visbeck - GEOMAR, Germany

Session description: Quality and contradictions; discovery, access and data sparse regions. Observations to test mitigation approaches. Observations for attribution studies.

Keynote speakers:

• "Rainfall Rescue: extending instrumental UK rainfall reconstructions", Ed Hawkins - University of Reading, UK Remotely
• "Designing a pan-African climate observation system to deliver societal benefit through climate action: The KADI project", Matthew Saunders - Trinity College Dublin, Ireland
• "Exploring the robustness of air sensors for understanding the impacts of location-specific agricultural practices on local air quality", Collins Gameli Hodoli - University of Environment and Sustainable Development, Ghana

Convenors: Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes - Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Spain; Caio Augusto dos Santos Coelho - Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, Brazil; Chi Huyen Truong - Himalayan University Consortium, Mountain Knowledge and Action Networks, Nepal

Session description : Distillation/downscaling methods and approaches. Managing contradictions in downscaled information. Integrating global/regional / local scale information. Regional information for compound events.

Keynote speakers:

• "Causal and explainable machine-learning models for hazard-induced displacement", José María Tárraga - University of Valencia, Spain
• "A simple hybrid statistical dynamical downscaling method to address the challenge of providing tailored regional climate change information", Julien Boé - Cerfacs, France Remotely
• "The Objective Seasonal Forecasting Approach over Eastern Africa: Benefits, Challenges and Future Prospects", Masilin Gudoshava - IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, Kenya

Convenors: Meghan Cronin - NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), USA; Precious Mongwe - Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), South Africa; Luciano Pezzi - Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), Brazil

Session description : Processes involving air-sea interaction and air-sea ice interaction affecting regional and global climate, including surface energy fluxes, chemical interactions and dynamical interactions.

Keynote speakers:

• "New challenges in transcending the boundary: The Surface Ocean-Lower Atmosphere Study at 20", Lisa Miller - DFO Institute of Ocean Sciences (IOS), Canada - Remotely
• "The impact of storms on CO2 and heat exchange across the Southern Ocean", Sarah-Anne Nicholson - Southern Ocean Carbon-Climate Observatory (SOCCO), CSIR, South Africa - Remotely
• "Fast thermal air-sea coupling: the instantaneous wind response and the role of environmental conditions", Agostino Niyonkuru Meroni - Università Milano-Bicocca, Italy
• "Facilitating the Evaluation of Air-Sea Fluxes: the AirSeaFluxCode Package", Richard Cornes - National Oceanography Centre (NOC), UK - Remotely