Poster clusters are designed to bring together a community working on a specific topic within the broader conference themes. The aim is to help participants to organize their poster viewing and to provide a forum for discussion about the cluster topic. Posters will form a very important part of the OSC. In addition to dedicated on-site poster sessions, all posters will be posted on the hybrid platform poster gallery at least two weeks before the conference. Virtual poster sessions will be organized during these two weeks. For the program at a glance, click here.
To get the description of a poster cluster, click on its title.
Bin Guan, University of California, Los Angeles & NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Christine Shields, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Description: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow and elongated regions of horizontal water vapor transport that play important roles in the global water cycle, including its extremes. Increasing evidence shows that ARs have footprints and impacts in all seven continents, and that they are undergoing notable changes as the Earth continues to warm. The range of processes and the compound hazards and benefits associated with ARs represent a key challenge to the science and applications communities. Meeting this challenge in the context of climate variability and change calls for better communication, understanding, and collaboration across a variety of disciplines. To highlight and enhance recognition of ARs as a particular type of extreme events, and showcase recent advancements in AR observational, theoretical, and modeling studies, this poster cluster encourages contributions from multiple disciplines and those focusing on different geographic/socioeconomic regions. Expected topics include atmospheric, oceanic, hydrologic, ecologic, societal, and other aspects of ARs under past, current, and future climates; different flavors and regional manifestation of ARs; the interactions between ARs and other weather/climate phenomena; and emerging and novel applications of the AR concept in studying and managing weather, water, and climate extremes.
Kirsten Findell, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA
Anne Verhoef, University of Reading
Description: The Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) Global Land-Atmosphere Systems Studies (GLASS) Panel encourages interdisciplinary studies of the Earth system, including both modeling and observational efforts to understand processes from the sub-surface (e.g., impacts of soil characteristics on groundwater recharge), to the surface (e.g., impacts of soil moisture availability and vegetative controls on surface flux partitioning), to the near-surface atmosphere (e.g., impacts of surface fluxes on development of the planetary boundary layer). We encourage submissions addressing the breadth of interactions between the land and the atmosphere, with scales of interest ranging from observational site-scale process understanding applicable at sub-diurnal to seasonal timescales, out to continental and global climatological understanding of the interconnected water, energy, and carbon cycles and how they are changing.
Chris Jones, Met Office Hadley Centre
Pierre Friedlingstein , University of Exeter
Description: The IPCC AR6 quantification of the remaining carbon budgets (RCB) consistent with global warming levels such as 1.5°C or 2°C is fraught with such a large uncertainty that it is hardly useful for decision-making. The remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C is very likely to be between 300 and 900 billion tons CO2. This large uncertainty primarily comes from the Transient Climate Response to cumulative Emissions (TCRE), as it is the primary determinant of the RCB. IPCC AR6 assessment of TCRE showed a large uncertainty (0.27 to 0.63°C per 1000 billion tons CO2 emitted). It is timely to systematically assess TCRE and our ability to narrow this uncertainty range. The goal of posters in this session is to bring together the multiple strands of evidence to make a substantial advance in our understanding of TCRE and associated carbon budget estimates.
Specifically we solicit:
- Process level understanding of what drives TCRE, with a focus on carbon cycle feedbacks which affect the airborne fraction of CO2 emissions. Explicitly targeting both land and ocean processes controlling carbon sinks.
- The sources of current TCRE uncertainty - components of the global carbon cycle mostly responsible for TCRE uncertainty.
- Multiple time periods - targeting information from past climates, the historical record, and simulations of future changes.
- Mapping and understanding the various lines of evidences from observational data from site-level stations (FluxNET) and manipulation experiments (FACE, soil warming) to large-scale estimates of changes in atmospheric CO2, historical global carbon budget, and modelling-based estimates.
Marie-France Loutre, PAGES (Past Global Changes)
Description: Our society is under pressure because of many unusual phenomena and changes related to natural climate variability that are taking place at a rapid pace. Studying the past can help us figure out how rare or common such events have been. Climate reconstruction, climate modeling, and data–model intercomparison offer complementary information. New proxies and methods are still needed to improve our understanding of different climatic processes and to better understand paleoclimate across the globe. Improved techniques for data-model integration (such as data assimilation) are also essential for better utilizing paleodata for future projections.
Indeed, the study of many types of past events can shed light on the future:.
- Paleoflood studies can improve flood-hazard scenarios with enhanced understanding of the physical processes controlling the occurrence and magnitude of floods.
- Past changes in sea level and Earth’s cryosphere can help us constrain future sea-level rise in response to climate change.
- Natural variability plays a role in climate. Tools are developed and tested on data from the past to understand and predict variability in the future.
- Geoengineering is still highly debated. Assessing its positive and negative impacts on climate, ecosystems, and society is essential. Global experiments, such as past volcanic eruptions, can also highlight their consequences.
- Past behaviors of ecosystems can illustrate potential consequences and risks for the societies, and support the decision of managers and policymakers.
- Climate change, lives and livelihoods with a focus on Agriculture and biodiversity.
These are examples of how the past can support predictions of the future. We welcome contributions illustrating additional examples as well.
Doug Smith, Met Office
Scott Osprey, University of Oxford
Description: Annual to decadal (A2D) changes in climate affect extreme events and cause severe impacts on society, but their drivers are poorly understood. The WCRP Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change aims to develop an operational capability to attribute A2D changes in climate in order to better understand current climate and gain further confidence in decadal forecasts that are now issued operationally by the WMO. The spatial focus is on global-to-regional scales. This poster cluster welcomes contributions related to all aspects of A2D attribution and prediction, including:
- methodologies for attributing A2D changes in climate
- case studies of A2D attribution
- predictability and mechanisms of A2D changes in climate
- understanding signals in current decadal predictions
- analysis of Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP) experiments
- updated forcing estimates and their effects on A2D changes in climate
- requirements and challenges for building an operational capability to attribute A2D changes in climate
Amy Butler, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Alexey Karpechko, Finnish Meteorological Institute
Description: We request posters that examine how the coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere influences surface weather and climate across timescales. In particular, we welcome studies that link surface extremes to extratropical or tropical stratospheric variability, improve mechanistic understanding, or quantify how model biases in the atmospheric circulation drive uncertainties in weather and climate predictions or projections.
Neil Hart, University of Oxford
Akintomide Akinsanola, University of Illinois Chicago/Argonne National Laboratory
Ross Dixon, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Moetasim Ashfaq Oak Ridge National Labroratory
Izidine Pinto, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Ruth Cerezo-Mota, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Tereza Cavazos, Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE)
Rondrotiana Barimalala, NORCE
Description: Variability and change in the onset, core, and cessation of the rainy seasons, both in Africa and across the globe, remains a serious challenge for society. In this poster cluster we invite contributions from researchers working across the full breadth of monsoon research challenges. These may include, but are not limited to, work on monsoon theory, prediction, and linkages between monsoons. We also welcome those working on observations of present day monsoon rainfall, proxy records of past monsoons, and climate projections of future monsoons. Furthermore, we invite contributions addressing climate service provision around rainfall onset, intraseasonal rainfall characteristics, and efforts to improve forecast products which support stakeholder decision-making. This poster cluster accompanies the Monsoon Session organised by the CLIVAR Monsoon Panel. In complement to this Monsoon session we welcome posters in the three session sub-themes:
- Monsoons and oceanic processes
- Processes relevant to extreme rainfall events in monsoons
- Monsoons in a changing climate
Raghavendra Ashrit, National Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting, Noida, India
Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India
Description: Extreme rainfall and temperature events are on the rise over India like in many other parts of the world. Accurate prediction of such extreme events is critical given the severity of their impact. However, forecasting the extreme events is still a great challenge, even with the use of most advance high resolution NWP models. Identifying the spatio-temporal drivers of the extreme events is also a challenge as the events typically involve complex, nonlinear interactions between the underlying natural and anthropogenic processes. Ensemble prediction is becoming increasingly important on all timescales from the short (one or three days ahead) to the seasonal range and beyond. Besides providing the probabilistic forecasts, EPS allows the user to access the risk better and to make more informed decisions. In this poster cluster we invite contributions from researchers working across the full breadth of extreme weather and climate research challenges. These may include, but are not limited to, work on monsoon and extremes over India, observations, modelling, prediction, and teleconnections etc. We also welcome those working on statistical analysis (Extreme Value Analysis) historical observations. Furthermore, we invite contributions addressing weather and climate services and decision-making. This poster cluster accompanies the Monsoon Session organised by the CLIVAR Monsoon Panel. In complement to this session we welcome posters in three sub-themes:
- Monsoon Extremes in Rainfall and Heat Waves
- Processes relevant to extreme rainfall and temperature events.
- Teleconnections and forecasting prospects.
- Forecast Verification for extreme weather events.
Paulo Nobre, National Institute for Space Research - INPE, Brazil
Hyugjun Kim, Korea Advanced Institute of Science & Technology - KAIST
Description: The poster cluster is aimed at bringing together the community working on different aspects of the Water Cycle and get them to exchange knowledges and perceptions about drinkable water availability in a warmer world. The cluster welcomes communications encompassing the effects of global warming on: the physics of water vapor condensation; rainfall diurnal cycle and atmospheric teleconnections; the role of forests and the ocean for global water cycle stability; the impacts of deforestation/reforestation on rainfall; aerial rivers; paleo-climatic perspectives of tropical rainfall and global ocean circulation; droughts and fires feedbacks; indigenous peoples knowledge on rainfall processes; societal perceptions of drinkable water (in)finitude.
Tom Bracegirdle, British Antarctic Survey
Erik Behrens, National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Ltd (NIWA)
Description: The largest internal climate variability on the planet occurs in many aspects of the Antarctic climate system, which is therefore a major consideration in making predictions and projections for the coming years and decades. This is in the context of the emergence of significant signals of externally forced change, which are becoming clearer and more widespread across high southern latitudes. This poster cluster will consider presentations aiming to quantify and explain recent, current and near-term future conditions. A key topic is the emergence of signals of external forcing in observations and climate model simulations and the relative roles of specific drivers of regional trends and variability such as tropical teleconnections, internal Southern Ocean processes, and stratospheric ozone changes. These and other factors feed into estimations of future near-term change. The accuracy of model predictions and projections of future conditions depends strongly on model reliability, therefore model assessment against observations and improvements in design are highly relevant. Priority questions include:
- Will recent trends in sea ice continue into the future?
- How will the westerlies respond to opposing influences of stratospheric ozone recovery and GHG increases?
- What are the implications of current and future change for the rest of the planet?
- How will extreme events change and what are their contribution to underlying climate trends?
We welcome posters addressing these and related questions involving model results and observational datasets across a range of components of the Antarctic climate system. This session is endorsed by the SCAR Scientific Research Programme AntClimNow.
Rohit Ghosh, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading
Description: Changes in the North Atlantic Ocean surface temperature have been found to influence the local as well as remote climate from subseasonal to multi-decadal time scales. Understanding and properly representing those influences in the climate modeling framework is crucial to properly simulate the future regional climate variations, which would eventually lead to increased predictability. However, climate models have shown deficiency in representing the observed North Atlantic oceanic processes which affected its ability to represent its local and remote influences. Through very high-resolution modeling with fully resolving the ocean meso-scale eddies, there is an ongoing effort to address these shortcomings in the state of the art climate models. Additionally, there is an effect of anthropogenic warming on the North Atlantic Ocean circulations with a signature of a warming hole over the subpolar regions. This could also have an effect on the future regional and global climate change. Overall, this poster cluster aims at research particularly addressing the connection of the North Atlantic Ocean to regional climate variations across timescales including the anthropogenic response and showing advancements and improvements in our understanding on this aspect. Both observational and climate model studies are welcome to be part of this cluster.
Mat Collins, University of Exeter, UK
Roxy Mathew Koll, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India
Description: The Poster Cluster will address the issue of changes in sea surface temperature (SST) patterns in the tropics as a response to climate change. Topics will include; physical processes for SST pattern changes including the role of atmosphere vs ocean processes and their coupled feedbacks, uncertainties in projections, time of emergence, dependence on emission scenario, and opportunities for constraining projections. It will also address impacts of SST pattern changes on rainfall, cloud feedbacks, extreme events (atmosphere and ocean), monsoons, ecosystems, and societies.
Changing patterns of tropical Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are important for both global and local climate change, with the local changes happening in countries where some of the most vulnerable people in the world live. Pattern changes drive shifts in tropical rainfall patterns and are also key in affecting changes in clouds, which are a major feedback in determining the global climate sensitivity. They can impact modes of climate variability, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation, drive marine heatwaves, and disrupt atmospheric flows such as monsoon systems. Impacts on people include threats to water resources and agriculture, and changes in the pathways of extreme events such as hurricanes, typhoons and tropical cyclones. Tropical SSTs are impacted by both atmosphere and ocean processes and their coupling, making this a difficult problem to solve. Moreover, the patterns of change simulated by models are at odds with what are observed in the real world.
Fan Wang, Institute of Oceaonlogy, Chinese Academy of Sciences/Oceanography and Climatology Society of China
Chuanyu Liu, Institute of Oceaonlogy Chinese Academy of Sciences/Oceanography and Climatology Society of China
Description: The ocean is consisting of multiple temporal and spatial scale motions that contribute to the changes of the climate system. In addition to the large-scale air-sea interaction, recent studies have revealed significant impacts of mesoscale to small-scale ocean processes (e.g., mesoscale eddies, sub-mesoscale motions, small-scale turbulences) on the climate, which was overlooked previously mainly due to lack of observations and insufficient resolution of ocean and coupled climate models. The mesoscale to small-scale motions influence the climate changes via either shaping the pattern and variability of the large-scale ocean currents and thus that of the sea surface temperature (SST) - the principal communicator of the ocean with the atmosphere, or/and via inducing air-sea heat flux changes that directly impact the SST and the atmosphere. However, a deeper understanding of the underlying (thermos)dynamics, a full description of the spatial pattern and temporal variations, and a quantitative evaluation, of the mesoscale to small-scale processes’ effect on climate, are not obtained yet. Accurately assessing their impact requires explicit resolution of motions at these scales, not only in delicate design of high-resolution observations, but also in development of kilometer-scale high-resolution oceanic and coupled atmosphere-ocean models with observation-verified sub-grid parameterizations. Therefore, this Poster Cluster will be organized to exhibit recent advances in observation, theory, and numerical simulation efforts of the mesoscale to small-scale oceanic processes and their impacts on different temporal scale changes of the climate; poster from a related wider scope is also welcome
Sonya Legg, Princeton University, USA
Sarah Nicholson, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, South Africa
Description: A wide variety of ocean processes occur below the grid-scale of modern climate models, including turbulence and submesoscale instabilities in the surface mixed layer, bottom boundary layer, and ice-ocean boundary layer; internal waves and shear instability in the ocean interior; deep convection in polar seas; and mesoscale eddies in regions of strong lateral buoyancy gradients. These processes have an important impact on climate, by communicating between the ocean surface and the interior, influencing air-sea fluxes including uptake and storage of carbon and heat, altering oceanic water masses, and modifying currents such as the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, the Indonesian Throughflow, and many others involved in the meridional overturning circulation. Climate models indirectly simulate these processes, so their impacts are best captured using physically-based parameterizations. In this poster cluster recent advances in understanding the impact of these processes on climate will be highlighted, including development and implementation of parameterizations for climate models. Connections between ocean mixing and ocean climate solutions, such as ocean carbon dioxide removal and offshore renewable energy are also welcome.
William Merryfield, Environment and Climate Change Canada
Charlotte Demott, Colorado State University (USA)
Description: The world’s oceans are a primary source of “memory” and hence predictability in the Earth system, and can influence extreme weather events across the globe. Many subseasonal to decadal prediction systems are capable in principle of predicting future ocean states. However, the utility of such predictions for informing decision making has only started to be explored, having thus far been limited by gaps in data availability, communication with potential users, observational data for initialization and verification, and scientific understanding of the underlying mechanisms of ocean predictability. At the same time, exciting progress is underway in assessing the predictability and developing predictions of societally and ecologically impactful ocean phenomena such as marine heat waves, coral bleaching events, and variations in sea level, biogeochemical properties such as primary production and acidity, and sea ice cover.
This hybrid poster cluster invites contributions across topics relating to ocean predictability and prediction on subseasonal to decadal time scales, including mechanisms of predictability involving ocean dynamics, air-sea fluxes and other influences; quantification of predictability and prediction skill for ocean physical and biogeochemical variables; datasets and methods for initialization and verification of ocean variables; and existing or planned ocean climate services and related applications.
Antonietta Capotondi, University of Colorado and NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, USAbr>Roxy Mathew Koll, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, India
Description: Marine Heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme climatic events that impact all ocean basins and can persist from weeks to months and spread over hundreds to thousands of kilometers. MHWs have devastating impacts on marine habitats and ecosystems and influence regional weather systems such as the monsoons and extreme weather events like tropical cyclones. Large subsurface warming with more frequent and longer MHWs have been observed in the past two decades, a trend that is expected to continue in a warming climate. Coral paleo data suggest that high amplitude events likely occurred in the past. Yet only recently have we begun to understand some of the climate drivers impacting the intensity and persistence of these ocean extremes. This poster cluster invites contributions on all aspects of MHWs, including surface and subsurface characteristics of MHWs in different regions of the world, leading mechanisms, ecological, biogeochemical and societal impacts, predictability and prediction, as well as future projections.
Observations and modelling
Claire Macintosh, European Space Agency
Susanne Mecklenburg, European Space Agency
Description: The UNFCCC is leading the international efforts to combat climate change and limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, as set out in the Paris Agreement for Climate. It is the body responsible for driving global climate action. In their reporting, National emission inventories are constructed using bottom-up methods in which activity levels are multiplied by emission factors to estimate total anthropogenic emissions. Bottom-up methods relate emissions to the underlying processes, thus providing a basis for emission control strategies. However, these methods require validating data, largely drawn from in situ observations. This presents challenges in remote or hard to observe regions. Satellite Earth Observations (EOs) provide top-down information at high observation densities, with global coverage. These observations can supplement bottom-up emissions estimates and provide critical monitoring of the impact of adaptation and mitigation efforts.
We invite submissions on topics related to data for NDCs and the Global Stocktake:
- to evaluate the feasibility of producing updated estimates of GHG balance at country level
- to develop methodologies using EO data sources to constrain NDC estimates.
- Exploiting global satellite observations for attribution and process studies for GHGs
- to improve consistencies between top-down and bottom-up official estimates reported by countries to the UNFCCC.
Antonio Bombelli, GCOS Secretariat – Global Climate Observing System
Description: One of the main goals of the Paris Agreement is to improve the ability of societies to adapt to climate change and this is particularly urgent for climate extremes. Our confidence in observed changes in extremes depends on the quality and quantity of available data. Earth observations have already provided evidence that in several regions of the world there is an increasing trend of climate extremes significantly challenging human systems. New observations methods and approaches will be required to improve our ability to understand and estimate climate related risks to support adaptation planning and increase the resilience to climate changes.
The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) is an international programme established to support the provision of climate observations at global level and promote their improvement and exploitation. However, adaptation is a process that normally applies at the local context. Earth observations at local scale can indeed be directly useful for the assessment of climate-related risk (observations for adaptation) as well as to monitor the spatiotemporal development of adaptation (observations of adaptation). On the other hand, the effective use of global observations for adaptation has not been fully exploited.
The aim of this Poster Cluster is to explore the usefulness of current and additional global climate observations, including the GCOS Essential Climate Variables (ECVs), for adaptation applications.
Claire Macintosh, European Space Agency
Susanne Mecklenburg, European Space Agency
Description: The updated GCOS implementation plan moves towards redefining the requirements of the global observing system, focussing on characterising the integrated climate system and its component Earth system cycles.
Coordinated climate observations are essential for understanding the complexities of the global climate system, and to improve understanding and inform decision making, for example to develop new climate scenarios and early warning systems for climate-related disasters, disease outbreaks, and biodiversity and ecosystem change.
We invite submissions to this science session on topics related to progress towards achieving a fully implemented, sustainable, global observing system for climate, and the development of operational climate services and tools.
James Thornton, Mountain Research Initiative & GEO Mountains
Carolina Adler, Mountain Research Initiative & GEO Mountains
Description: It has long been suggested that in situ climate observation networks in many mountain regions are deficient. However, only more recently has mountain network coverage begun to actually be systematically assessed (e.g. Thornton et al., 2022, Frontiers in Climate). In addition, it is increasingly recognised that in mountains (arguably even more so that elsewhere), intelligent strategies are required to integrate and thus maximise the complementary benefits of in situ, remotely sensed, and modelled data (e.g. Thornton et al., 2021, One Earth). This poster cluster, which is co-convened by GEO Mountains and the Mountain Research Initiative's "Mountain Observatories" and "Elevation Dependent Climate Change" Working Groups, welcomes contributions seeking to identify and/or overcome various types of "gaps" or "deficiencies" in mountain climate observations and/or models, for example with respect to spatial coverage, elevational coverage, spatial resolution, accuracy/uncertainty, multi-variable measurements, etc. Ultimately, it is hoped that continued efforts on this theme will drive advancements in scientific understanding and prediction, and will also improve the quantity and quality of information available to policy- and other decision makers for applications such as natural hazard mitigation and climate change adaptation (see e.g. Adler et al., 2022, IPCC AR6 WGII Cross-Chapter Paper 5).
Samuel M. Mugo, MacEwan University, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Description: Scientific innovations in smart sensors, have significant implications for addressing environmental and agri-food challenges as a response to mitigating the effects of climate change. This poster cluster will pull a diverse pool of experts to delve on a collaborative brain exchange on how smart sensors and data analytics can creatively address key global societal issues, from environmental pollution and mitigation, intelligent water and waste management, precision agriculture, public health and nutrition, food safety, to energy conservation and climate change. In particular, the poster cluster will focus on how Africa universities, research institutions and private technology companies can be on leading path for homegrown Africa innovation (Ai) on development and development of smart sensors for African agri-food and climate change resilience and development.
Kirsten Findell, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/ NOAA
Andrea Storto, Italian National Research Council (CRN), Institute of Marine Science (ISMAR)
Description: The development of a capability to observe, explain, and predict changes in the Earth system requires the tight integration of observations and models, including characterization and quantification of uncertainties. Comprehensive model calibration, initialization, and evaluation of model skill require observational datasets that capture the phenomena of interest, along with corresponding computational frameworks (e.g., numerical modelling, data assimilation, inverse methods). Just as observations can be used to confront models, calibrate model parameters, and determine model skill, models can be leveraged to inform the design of efficient, targeted observing systems and to assess observational products. We envision feedbacks between model and observing system improvement and assessment, as both represent incomplete yet complementary knowledge bases. Similarly, identification of causal factors and processes leading to large-scale climate regime shifts or changes in regional hazard risk require integrated usage of observations and models.
We encourage submissions addressing several questions:
- What are the observational and modeling requirements to measure, explain and predict changes in the Earth system on annual to decadal (A2D) and regional to global scales?
- How can the consistency of different observational products be assessed?
- How can we most effectively combine observations and models and their respective uncertainties to quantify, explain and predict changes in the Earth system on A2D and regional to global scales?
- How can interactions between different spatio-temporal scales be formulated in model-data fusion algorithms?
- Which enhanced observations and observation-based products offer the greatest improvements in predictive and explanatory skill? Where should those enhancements be targeted?
Roland Séférian, CNRM (Météo-France/CNRS)
Chris Jones, Met Office Hadley Centre
Description: This cluster aims to bring together contributions from the community on the various demands surrounding the Earth system model development, and how these advances relate to climate policies (i.e., mitigation or adaptation needs). We solicit contributions identifying both knowledge gaps and promising developments which might be realised on the timescale of CMIP7 or CMIP8.
Contributions investigating how future Earth system model developments could interface with other parts of the modelling chain and data requirements such as the scenario development frameworks are also welcome.
Masahiro Watanabe, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute (AORI), University of Tokyo
Michio Kawamiya, CEMA, JAMSTEC
Description: A new research program named “MEXT program for the advanced studies of climate change projection (SENTAN)” has been launched in 2022 by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) in Japan as a follow-up to IPCC AR6. This program addresses a variety of important issues in the current climate science and aims at conducting the following research based on Earth system model (ESM).
- Physical and biogeochemical understanding of mechanisms of large-scale climate change, including global metrics such as ECS, TCR, and TCRE, as well as emergent constraint studies for reducing uncertainty of future projections.
- Near-term climate and Earth system prediction, based on initialization of ESM. In addition to the decadal-scale climate prediction, prediction of carbon cycles is an emerging challenge.
- Attribution of the past climate change using large-ensemble historical simulations and the pacemaker experiments, which are becoming popular in CMIP6.
- Event attribution that quantifies contribution of anthropogenic warming to extreme events.
- Development of downscaling techniques for seamless warming projection from global to local scales
The cluster will present the recent Japanese climate research efforts and the latest results from these studies.
Kevin Reed, Stony Brook University
Chris Jones, Met Office Hadley Centre
Description: The development of future climate scenarios remains a challenging but important endeavor. The World Climate Research Programme has launched the Lighthouse Activity on Safe Landing Climates to explore routes to “safe landing” destinations for future human and natural systems. The Safe Landing Pathways working group is synthesizing the feedbacks, trade-offs, and co-benefits in climate change mitigation and adaptation and is gathering insights from the broad climate change research community to inform the development of scenario research. We seek posters that highlight existing work and shortcomings of commonly-used scenarios, that explore the various applications of climate scenarios, and that present scenario approaches typically used outside of climate science in an effort to help make climate scenarios more inclusive. This poster cluster will facilitate discussions about long term strategies for climate scenario planning and impact science communities that seek to monitor and analyze the shifting trajectory of the Earth’s climate system.
Claire Macintosh, European Space Agency
Susanne Mecklenburg, European Space Agency
Description: Open innovation best practices lay their foundation in principles such as openness, reproducibility, inclusiveness, etc. This session will highlight achievements in Earth Science research enabled by Open Innovation practices and tools, as well as the importance of international cooperation on Earth Observation for interoperable and reproducible Earth Science at scale, highlighting how open innovation can lead to more collaborative, creative and robust solutions. The session features contributions from cooperating space agencies (e.g., ESA, NASA, etc.), international bodies, academia, and industry.
Risks & extremes
Bette Otto-Bliesner, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Gabi Hegerl, University of Edinburgh
Description: Under-appreciated risks, such as tipping points, large-scale compound extremes, and cascading events, may derail safe landing spaces for human and natural systems over the next decades to a millennium. The WCRP Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity has launched a High-Risk Events working group to explore these risks, which may not be recognized in typical planning activities because they involve great uncertainty or lack a framework for incorporation into projections. The Safe Landing High-Risk Events working group aims to identify and understand the risks from low-probability, high-impact possibilities with global-scale ramifications and the adaptation limits for human, land, and ocean ecosystems and resources, worst-case (extreme/existential) scenarios, and global-scale tipping elements and points. We seek posters that highlight the latest research in modeling, understanding, and managing plausible past and future high-impact climate risks. Interactions and feedbacks within the Earth system and with the human system are of interest. This poster cluster will aid in discussions of the Safe Landing High-Risk Events working group with the community about strategies to analyze, monitor, and inform the impacts of high-risk events for the future Earth system.
Leone Cavicchia, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)
Paolo De Luca, Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC),
Marlene Kretschmer, Leipzig University,
Stefano Materia, Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC),
Sungmin O , Ewha Womans University
Description: In recent years, numerous studies have been devoted to the exploitation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and machine learning techniques to study weather and climate extremes including but not limited to droughts, heat waves, cyclones, wildfires, extreme precipitation and compound events. Applications include the identification of extreme events in large datasets, the description of their socio-economic impacts and the assessment of resulting risks. Moreover, AI techniques have been used to improve the prediction of extremes and their attribution to large-scale drivers (e.g. sea-surface temperatures and atmospheric pressure patterns) and to anthropogenic climate change.
This session aims to bring together researchers working on various AI techniques - such as unsupervised and supervised machine learning, reinforcement learning, causal discovery as well as explainable AI - applied to the study of climate extremes. All contributions related to the advancement in the detection, attribution, and prediction of extreme events with AI, from daily weather to seasonal and multidecadal time scales, and the application of AI to assess the socio-economic impacts and risks associated with these events, are welcome.
Sara C. Pryor, Xuebin Zhang and Izuru Takayabu, Cornell University
Izuru Takayabu, Japan Meteorological Agency
Description: Weather (short duration) and climate (long duration) extreme events are an inherent component of regional climate risk. These extreme events comprise a disproportionate part of the climate risk posed to society. Hence, decision- and policy- makers are increasingly asking for reliable description of extremes in the historical and contemporary climate and future projections of extreme events on time scales from days to seasons and centuries. The session is designed to address all aspects of weather and climate extremes and impacts on society. Our overarching questions include: How has the frequency and types of extreme events have varied in the past, and how they may evolve in the future? What type of efforts will help society adapt to potential future changes in climate and weather extremes? We particularly welcome submissions that are designed to address topics such as:
- Quantifying past and future changes in extreme events.
- Advancing methods to best identify societally relevant extreme events.
- Appropriate methods to best characterize extremes in the contemporary climate and attribute risk to physical and societal drivers.
- Advanced methods to define and characterize compound extremes.
- Quantifying the relative benefits of different methods to simulate the changing nature of extreme events in possible future climate states. For example; how do storyline approaches complement long-term transient simulations?
- Methods to characterize skill in projections of regional climate extremes.
- Effective methods to communicate information regarding regional climate extremes across different timescales.
- Robust methods to attribute the changing frequency and/or morphology of regional extreme events in an evolving climate.
Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois
Kirsten Findell, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA
Description: A key goal of the WCRP Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change is to better understand, quantify, and predict changes in the characteristics and likelihoods of regional weather and climate hazards on annual to decadal (A2D) scales, taking into account non-stationarity and multi-decadal variability, particularly on large scales like those associated with the El Nino – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Hazards of interest include tropical and extratropical cyclones, droughts, floods, heatwaves, wildfires, and cold air outbreaks. We aim to quantify the current likelihood of specific weather and climate hazards, as well as changes in weather and climate hazards on A2D scales. A key component of quantifying those changes must be improved understanding of the processes connecting changes in hazards to natural and anthropogenic drivers of climate variability and change. Each climate hazard brings its own particular requirements related to strength of observational data and modeling underpinning current understanding, and complexity of the hazard in human systems. In addition, the current and future likelihood of multiple/compound hazards and the associated cascading impacts need to be assessed. We invite a broad range of submissions related to current and future hazard risks, including submissions addressing the following questions:
- How do internal variability and external forcings influence the characteristics and occurrence of meteorological hazards on A2D scales in different regions?
- How can we use observations, models, and process understanding to deliver robust assessments of current and future hazards for specific regions and hazard classes?
Markus Reichstein, Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, RISK-KAN
Jana Sillmann, University of Hamburg
Description: Extreme climate and weather events, associated disasters and emergent risks are becoming increasingly critical in the context of global environmental change and interact with other stressors. They are a potential major threat to reaching the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and one of the most pressing challenges for future human well-being. This session explores the linkages between extreme climate and weather events, associated disasters, societal dynamics and resilience. Emphasis is laid on
- Which impacts are caused by extreme climate events (including risks emerging from compound events) and cascades of impacts on various aspects of ecosystems and societies?
- Which feedbacks across ecosystems, infrastructures and societies exist?
- What are key obstacles towards societal resilience and reaching the SDGs, while facing climate extremes?
- What can we learn from past experiences?
- What local to global governance arrangements best support equitable and sustainable risk reduction? We welcome empirical, theoretical and modelling studies from local to global scale from the fields of natural sciences, social sciences, humanities and related disciplines.
Christian Franzke, Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Pusan National University, Republic of Korea
Davide Faranda, LSCE-CEA Saclay-IPSL-UVSQ-Universite; Paris Saclay, France
Description: Losses from extreme weather events have increased globally over the last decades and are expected to further increase in the future because of climatic and socio-economic changes. These losses arise from a complex interplay between human and environmental systems, for which the outcomes are often hard to predict. Yet, developing plans and policies for managing risks from extreme weather and climate events is an urgent and paramount task for societies. The inherent interdisciplinary nature of complex climate risks and extremes requires to bring together scientists and practitioners from widely different fields related to the modeling of risk and extremes in human and environmental systems. We will highlight the interdisciplinary nature of these approaches, with the aim of gaining a deeper understanding of complex climate risks and extremes. In this session we welcome contributions focused on:
- Risk quantification and management tools e.g. natural catastrophe models, agent-based models, system dynamic models;
- How extreme events and their impacts have varied or are likely to vary under climate change;
- How well climate models capture extreme events
- Attribution of extreme events and their impacts
- Emergent constraints on extremes
- Linking dynamical systems extremes to geophysical extremes
- Extremes in dynamical systems
- Downscaling of weather and climate extremes and their impacts
- Linking the dynamics of climate extremes to their impact
- Tele-coupling and cascading extremes between the climate and socio-economic systems
Huopo Chen, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China
Shengping He, University of Bergen, Norway
Description: Significant increases in climate change risks have been reported around the world due to significantly warming. For example, climate extreme events such as heatwaves, rainstorms, droughts, and hurricanes, have been observed to become more extreme and frequent, which has already resulted in large losses for society, the economy, and natural ecosystems. Faced with these threats of climate change, voices urging the mitigation of the risks and impacts of climate change have become loud within governmental bodies, scientific communities, and the general public. Additionally, a greater insight into the associated dynamic processes is essential to gain a better understanding of the physical mechanisms of changes in extreme climate events. Thus, this poster cluster aims to bring together novel observational and numerical modeling studies regarding the underlying mechanisms of climate extremes, the change risks of climate extreme events and the associated impacts at global, regional or local scales, in the past, present, and future. Studies related to the changes in high temperatures, droughts, precipitation extremes, etc. are welcome, especially their dynamical mechanism, the potential impacts on society in sectors such as, human health, hydrology, and agriculture.
Impacts, adaptation, mitigation, services, policy, etc.
Shammah Agyare, CERATH Development Organization
Kwamina Addo, Agriculture and climate epowerment centre
Description: The poster cluster first gives a deeper insight and improved understanding of the changes in climate extremes based on daily climate data collected, with emphasis on climate variability trends in Africa. Next, it indicates the major drivers of climate change including fossil fuels, eutrophication, deforestation, among others. A component of the poster explicitly illustrates how human health and ecosystems’ health inextricably connected. Furthermore, the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on ecosystems, human health and economies are vividly demonstrated. The impacts of climate change on ecosystem services comprises of a range of impacts that may have an effect on human well-being and livelihood – such as, increased outbreak of vector-borne diseases, exacerbation of gender inequality, biodiversity loss, increased GHG emissions, reduction in farm yield thus increasing food insecurity and poverty. The last component of the cluster demonstrates climate change adaptation and mitigation solutions proven to be socio-ecologically friendly and sustainable. Following a case study on the adoption of climate smart agricultural innovations by smallholder farmers in East Africa, the poster highlights the social, ecological and economic benefits derived from climate smart agricultural practices & technologies employed by small farmers in selected rural areas of Africa. Among these successes include:
- 2500 women utilizing energy-efficient cooking stoves to reduce deforestation
- 235 terraces established to conserve soil and water
- 6 biogas digesters to produce renewable energy from cow manure
- 1,800 rice farmers with 25% increased productivity and 40% decrease in nitrogen loss by practicing System of Rice Intensification and Urea Deep Placement
Pavan Kumar, Rani Lakshmi Bai Central Agricultural University, Jhansi, India
Meenu Rani, ICAR- Indian Institute of Farming Systems Research Institute, Modipuram Meerut, India
Description: Climate change generates considerable uncertainty about future water availability in many regions. Climate change has both direct and indirect impacts on agricultural production systems. Global food production patterns would be fundamentally altered by climate change, causing food insecurity because of small shifts in seasonality and water availability. The gradual technological advances and rapid evolution in information technology further contribute to, support, and strengthen the sustainability of agriculture. These advancing systems and technologies, however, should also consider climate change as a major challenge for water, food security, and rural livelihoods for millions of people not only in Asia but also in the world. Climate variability, irregular rainfall behavior, and unexpected meteorological events directly impact ecosystems, water availability, and biodiversity thus threatening agricultural production systems, water security, livelihoods, food, and nutrition. The incorporation, implementation, and usage of the Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing (RS) technologies have given a new paradigm shift in sustainable agriculture research, operations, and practices. Although the aforementioned issues have long been addressed, continuing advances in various aspects related to food security need to be sought, allowing scientists and practitioners to obtain different perspectives in terms of technologies, best practices, and policy interventions.
The primary aim of the proposed poster cluster on the role of digital technology intervention and innovation: Key to addressing water and food security is to advance the scientific understanding and application of technologies addressing a variety of areas related to food security within the context of sustainable practices, crop modeling, irrigation practices, micro-irrigation, agricultural statistics, agricultural economics, climate change scenario, flood routing, spatial modeling, farmers income, and agricultural policy in the upcoming century. This proposal would be beneficial for academicians, scientists, environmentalists and meteorologists, environmental consultants, and computing experts working in the areas of agriculture, water, and food sciences.
Anushiya J., Centre for Study of Science, Technology & Policy (CSTEP)
Sridevi Karpagavalli, M., Tamil Nadu Green Climate Company
Description: The science shows that continued warming will affect the climate which in turn bring more intense rainfall and flooding, increased drought, heat and wild-fires. Increased warming will also amplify the melting of glaciers and ice sheets while sea level rise also increases. With 3.3 to 3.6 billion people living in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change, adaptation to climate risks is more important than ever. Adaptation planning and implementation are dynamic iterative learning processes needs updated climate risk information's at different scales and for sectors. A wide range of adaptations are possible with current technologies and management practices, development of technologies can expand the range of adaptation possibilities by expanding opportunities or reducing costs. The developments in adaptation support tools harnessed with better metrics at all scale will helps to understand climate risks to inform context specific adaptation planning and monitoring process across all sectors. The evidence based adaptation planning provide stakeholders with a clearly-defined path to cope with anticipated climate risks and precise adaptation planning.
Hashim Hamza Chande, School of Agriculture of the State University of Zanzibar
Nassor Said Mkarafuu, Department of Forestry of the Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, Natural Resources and Livestock, Zanzibar
Description: Climate change encompass increases in temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, changes in extreme weather events, and reductions in water availability may result in reduction of food production and productivity that lead to food insecurity which impacts on food availability, accessibility and utilization. Food security is an outcomes of food systems lead to human well-being that involves food availability (production, distribution and exchange), food accessibility (affordability, allocation and preference) and food utilization (nutrition and societal values and safety), therefore, when food systems are stressed with climate changes has direct impact on declining of food security.
GEHN Eco-Services, Non governmental institution
Georget K. Yarngo, Social interpress
Description: The importance of women in climate change resilience cannot be over-emphasized. More women must be at the table for leadership and decision-making as it relates to climate actions. Studies have shown that women and girls in every society are responding more effectively in times of crisis and actively working towards the creation of a more just and sustainable world. Yet, large structural gaps in inequality remain. By acknowledging the benefits women bring to the table, we can start to close these gaps and accelerate action to solve the climate crisis.
Women are the most impacted by climate change, Studies have found that 80% of people displaced by climate change are women. The economic and health impacts of more prolonged droughts, reduced food production, and severe weather events are disproportionately felt by women. The world’s poorest countries are the most vulnerable with women making up the majority of the 1.5 billion people living on less than $1 per day. Worldwide, women aged 25-34 are 25% more likely than men to live in extreme poverty.
Women also face more adverse effects of natural disasters and pollution. After floods, monsoons, and landslides, women face higher rates of both sexual violence and health problems. Over the period 1981–2002, a sample of 141 countries found that in unequal-gender societies, more women die from disaster events than men.
Women can quickly adapt to the climate crisis and be change-makers in their society.
Judith Priam, Saint Laurent du Maroni Municipality
Description: The global issues related to climate change can be reached through committed and empowered young students all around the world. They will be the next involved on the fieldwork and observations.
Shipra Jain, Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Services Singapore, National Environment Agency
Thea Turkington, Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Services Singapore, National Environment Agency
Description: This poster cluster session focuses on the current initiatives and future prospects of improving climate services in developing nations, often referred to as the Global South region. This session intends to bring together people working on the various stages of the climate service sector, from research to design to delivery. We invite abstracts on (a) current challenges and research gaps impeding the progress of the climate services, and (b) the latest scientific advances that can potentially improve climate services development and implementation in the Global South. We are also interested in hearing experiences, such as success stories or lessons learned, from examples in the past. We will also consider abstracts on ideas or successful prototype climate services from the Global North that have a good potential for implementation in the Global South. This session does not require the authors to be affiliated with the Global South countries, however, we expect the Global South to be the focal region of the discussion.
Bruce Hewitson, RIfS and University of Cape Town, South Africa
Lincoln Alves, INPE, Brazil
Description: The provision and use of climate information in decision-making is central to managing climate change risks. Good practice in climate services (CS) is still emerging with a diversity of perspectives. CS engages a wide range of actors (academic institutions, consultancies, regional and national agencies, and more) operating in a heterogeneous landscape of culture and context, with a range of modalities (portals, co-production, value chain, and more). Their time scales of interest range from subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction to multi-decadal projections. Information exchange is complicated with differing agendas, values, and varied client-provider power relationships. This poster session will explore the complex climate service landscape, its actors, how the services are used, and what will help stimulate further CS development to better enable society to manage risks and realise opportunities.
We encourage participation from diverse sectors and application contexts across the spectrum of CS challenges, and contributions which address issues such as:
- Sustainable successes and their underlying reasons.
- Outcomes that are less successful and the lessons learned.
- Experiences in engaging in cross-cultural contexts or contested value systems.
- Incorporating context framing in the construction of information.
- Metrics of the added value in regional information and application uptake.
- Methods of communicating uncertainty and skill at the decision scale.
- CS in regions with inadequacies in infrastructure and capacity for observations, monitoring, modelling, and prediction.
- Capacity development of stakeholders and information providers.
- Developing a community of practice.
- Communication methods.
- Scalable co-production.
- Systematic research on perspectives, needs, and decision processes in CS and stakeholders.
Hari Charan Behera, Sociological Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute Giridih, Jharkhand, India
Ram Avtar, Japan Nodal Office
Description: The two biggest continents-Asia and Africa account for more than three-fourth of the world's population. Despite bountiful natural resources, more than half of the world's poor live in two regions namely, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. These two continents with the highest poverty are facing inherent poor land governance and now facing an imminent challenge of climate change. Land use policies and practices (LUPP) in African and Asian countries are most complicated and they have direct bearing on livelihood, environment and sustainable development. Lack of climate resilient LUPP may furthermore affect issues like tenure security, agricultural productivity and can cause involuntary displacement, depeasantization and dispossession that are also responsible for social inequality, livelihood vulnerability, lack of economic growth and political instability. This invites special attention on natural resource governance and climate resilient LUPP to counter poverty, inequality, food insecurity and other issues of the sustainable development goals (SDGs).
Ajibola Anthony Akanji, Lead City University, Ibadan, Nigeria
Description: The imperatives to adopt multidisciplinary approaches for implementing climate change mitigation cannot be overemphasized. A pertinent challenge is to identify the most appropriate variables for the right blend. Thus, the intersection of laws, public administration, and non-governmental initiatives is proposed.
Laws refer to legal frameworks at sub-national, national, regional, and global levels of governance. It embodies systems of rules that regulates humans and states actions. Laws have binding effects on policy formulation and execution. Often, laws are endowed with means of enforcement, hence a tool for cohesion. Laws provide the overriding templates for climate change mitigation.
Public administration refers to public institutions at sub-national government, national government, sub-regional organisations, regional organisations, and global organisations. It is the execution of public policies by government officials. It encapsulates execution of laws with the planning and execution of government operations on climate change. Global public administration take public administration across national boundaries.
Non-governmental initiatives are the activities of private persons and institutions with minimal government intervention. In this circumstance, solidarity activities as represented by co-operatives, Social solidarity economy, mutual organisations, community currencies, peer-to-peer activities are emphasized. These initiatives engage in a broad range of economic endeavours that reconcile economic and social peculiarities. Thus they support climate change mitigation by promoting socio-economic (sustainable) profits instead of financial profits. Among others, they offer panacea against the harshness of capitalism.
The objective is to have a poster cluster that promotes intersection of laws, public administration, and non-government initiatives in works towards climate change mitigation.
Didier Ntwali, Rwanda Space Agency
Description: The climate projections are crucial for the sustainable fruitful collaboration of scientists and policymakers towards appropriate and effective climate change mitigation and adaptation. The agriculture sector is significantly contributing to the increase of the economy in Rwanda; however, it is severely affected by climate extreme conditions. This joint study evaluates historical data and future projections of heavy precipitation and aridity over Rwanda. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) have been used to evaluate the climate extremes namely heavy precipitation days and aridity respectively from 2015 to 2100 and from 1950 to 2100. The CMIP6 Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenario namely SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585 while CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenario namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 have been considered. The findings show remarkable changes in the amount of rainfall and aridity across Rwanda. The maximum length of dry days (CDD) are projected to decrease in most areas under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5. The opposite is likely under SSP3-7.0. The intensity of maximum consecutive5-days (Rx5day) rainfall is projected to increase in most areas. Projected very heavy precipitation days (R20mm) show decreasing trends over many parts of the country with more decrease over southern and central plateau under RCP 4.5 and a decrease over the central plateau and the northern highlands under RCP 8.5 by 2050. The decrease [increase] in rainfall and severe aridity in some areas could lead to strong negative impacts and vulnerability of agriculture to by drought [flood], crop pests and diseases as well as soil degradation due to heavy rainfall. The findings of this research should be useful to policymakers to improve policies formulation on climate change mitigation and adaptation in agriculture and food security due to reduced crop yields